Two Works in Progress on Threats to Space Commerce

     My current research agenda focuses on the growing threats to space commerce from space debris, the growing risk that space will become weaponized as a new theater of warfare, anti-satellite testing, spacecraft collisions, atmospheric pollution, unenforceable treaties, and regulatory uncertainty. The papers are available at: https://hq.ssrn.com/submissions/MyPapers.cfm?partid=102928

    Here are the two abstracts:

    Dangers From the Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space

         Space, "the final frontier," has become an attractive, but increasingly risky market for both public and private investments.  Gold rush enthusiasm anticipates solutions to the Digital Divide via small low earth orbiting satellites, extraction of valuable minerals from asteroids, a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, and expanding earth observation opportunities.  Such entrepreneurial boldness juxtaposes with a severe lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails. The ambitious plans of Elon Musk and other space entrepreneurs could fail, despite recent market success, as SpaceX’s plans for 148 rocket launches in 2024.

    Without substantial refinement of global space treaties and effective national regulation, expanding and imprudent use of space resources could trigger "the tragedy of the commons," rendering the most valuable regions of space unusable. Satellites could collide, or strike orbiting debris at extremely high speeds.  Accidental collisions are more likely in a crowded orbital region, such as 200-1200 miles above earth where low earth orbiting satellites operate

    A much more costly calamity can occur when a valuable, fully operational satellite collides with space debris, such as a deactivated satellite, or when it becomes a target in a test of anti-satellite (“ASAT”) technology.  The likelihood of a space object collisions increases substantially when space faring nations and private ventures do not nudge no longer useful objects upward, farther into deep space, or on a downward trajectory toward earth that would guarantee complete vaporization.  The testing and future use of ASAT technology risks “weaponizing” space, despite treaty-level commitments to use it solely for peaceful purposes, benefitting everyone.

    This article explains how national governments have generated or tolerated the proliferation of space debris to potentially dangerous levels of space debris without penalty. It explains how intergovernmental agreements, such as the five space treaties administered by the United Nations, and the space/spectrum management agreements of the International Telecommunication Union, have not required space debris mitigation, nor sanctioned operators responsible for generating more space debris.

    The failure to address and resolve proliferating space debris from ASATs and abandoned space objects will increase the potential for calamities that render space access too risky. The article identifies how intergovernmental agreements can mandate space debris mitigation, impose sanctions for noncompliance, and create financial incentives for recycling and removing existing debris.

 Assessing the Impact of the Great Power Competition on Space Commerce

        Just as space commerce appears to have reached a critical mass, competing national government interests can thwart progress with strategies and tactics that increase market risk, volatility, and uncertainty. Despite universal support for a treaty-level commitment to pursue only peaceful activities, for the benefit of everyone, unilateral actions by the governments of China, Russia, the United States have the potential to disrupt markets and even weaponize space.  The five international treaties on space-related activities cannot foreclose weaponization of space as a likely new theater of warfare.

      So-called Great Power Competition has generated high stakes rivalry to retain or secure supremacy in military, political, economic, and societal spheres. The battle for a competitive advantage has the potential to reduce or even thwart continuing success in space markets, because conflict and rivalry on earth includes an increasingly volatile above ground component.

      This paper assesses two conflicting trends.  On one hand, space commerce in 2023 generated an estimated $630 billion in economic activity, rising to a potential $1.8 trillion by 2035. Low Earth Orbiting satellite constellations have the potential to bridge the Digital Divide by providing a reliable infrastructure for widely available and affordable broadband access, even in remote, rural, and impoverished locales throughout the world. Other developing market opportunities include development of a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, space exploration, colonization of the Moon and Mars and an expanded array of services via commercial satellites.

           On the other hand, longstanding and emerging challenges in outer space may shift from chronic and unresolved, to acute and potentially catastrophic. National governments and private ventures can avoid triggering worst case scenarios only if they accept compulsory limits on space weapons testing and use, coupled with effective measures to reduce the risk of collisions with discarded or active spacecraft.  

          The paper identifies the most pressing and emerging quandaries, many of which result from a nation’s failure to comply with limitations on space activity broadly framed by space treaties entered into force over 40 years ago. Because governments of the world have not reached consensus on whether and how to modernize the treaties, the currently in force agreements do not address market entry by private ventures, lack an enforcement mechanism to compel compliance, and rely primarily on the good will of all countries to support noble aspirations that increasingly deviate from individual national interests.  

          Recent deployment of unconventional space objects by China and Russia point to near term use of technologies for enhanced surveillance, and disruption, or even destruction of quite valuable in-space assets.  A national campaign to promote the acquisition of comparatively more power and leadership in space, by both the public and private sectors, can have consequences underappreciated in their severity.  

          The paper also explains how emerging technologies and business plans contribute to both revenue enhancement and greater risk of calamity. It offers specific recommendations on what unconditional and immediate commitments national governments and private ventures must make to avoid potential ruination of space.