SpaceX has filed a groundbreaking proposal to launch and operate one million small satellites as a data center in space. See https://fccprod.servicenowservices.com/icfs?id=ibfs_application_summary&number=SAT-LOA-20260108-00016.
My two immediate
reactions: Wow! and Is There Less Than Meets the Eye?
First the
Wow! In the spirit of moving fast and subverting
the conventional wisdom, SpaceX and Elon Musk have turned the AI and Data
Center topography upside down. Launch a
massive constellation of small satellites in Low Earth Orbit and the
gravitational pulls from water, electric power, and real estate issues, as well
as many unresolved regulatory, international law, and U.S. treaty commitments
evaporate. Poof!
Is this a
great country or what?
With this
filing, Space X proposes to increase the number of orbiting spacecraft from
about 12,000 to 1,112,000 (European Space Agency non space data center forecast
of 100,000 satellites by 2030 (see https://www.esa.int/ESA_Multimedia/Sets/Space_Debris_Is_it_a_Crisis).
LEO orbiting satellites will not deplete any scarce
terrestrial resources. Surely Artificial Intelligence applications will get a boost
as will U.S. competition to maintain global technological, military, and commercial
space supremacy. At least conceptually,
we consumers of data center and broadband service should benefit from faster,
better, smarter, cheaper, and sustainable cheaper goods and services.
What’s not to
like?
A lot, which
leads me to Is There Less Than Meets the Eye?
While admiring
the quest to capture first mover market advantages and public imagination, I
hereby throw cold water, aluminum particles and gas from vaporizing space junk,
and other inconvenient, but not easily ignored issues, making the project far
less than it appears from recent headlines and social network posts.
First,
consider the summary of exceptions SpaceX wants the FCC to issue. For a summary of the waiver requests, see https://www.fcc.gov/document/sb-accepts-filing-spacexs-application-orbital-data-centers.
In simple English, SpaceX wants the FCC to treat the application exclusively
and not in the customary filing window where other similar applications would
get considered at the same time. SpaceX also wants exemption from all milestone
requirements and deployment obligations meaning that it has no deadlines and benchmarks
to satisfy as proof of ongoing progress toward complete deployment of
satellites and the start of service. Despite its considerable access to
internal and external funding befitting a venture with an estimated value of $1
trillion, SpaceX seeks the waiver of all surety bond requirements and
obligations. Lastly, SpaceX wants to work on its ambitious project without disclosing
technical details such as channel plans for licensed beams, uplink and downlink
beams, command beams, and orbital plane configurations.
If the FCC
were to grant such an extensive waiver wish list, SpaceX would have quite
limited obligations to disclose how its space data center would operate and
whether other competing satellite constellations could share that part of LEO having
the right combination of solar power potential and the opportunity to discharge
the tremendous heat generated by the data center.
There is a
growing list of chronic and emerging issues that call into question whether
space, as enormous as it is, can accommodate 1 million more LEO satellites in
relatively close proximity to each other, even as new opportunities space
commerce opportunities, including tourism, asteroid mining for scare minerals,
and the colonization of the Moon and Mars, also will require shared access. A massive increase in spacecraft, coupled
with an expectation that earth hostilities will have a space surveillance, military,
and warfare component substantially raise the odds for collisions, as well as an
increase in toxicity from spacecraft launches and vaporization when falling
back to earth.
The SpaceX
grand proposal reminds me of the absolute necessity of having both full
disclosure of technical, operational, radio spectrum, and orbital plane usage,
coupled with a realistic timeline for starting service. Without these requirements, and “skin the
game” financial commitments, subject to forfeiture, SpaceX can, worse case,
propose nothing more than a paper satellite constellation that could chill
investment in competing, perhaps less ambitious but more timely and practical
projects.
It makes sense
to consider the six pages of conditions imposed by the FCC for StarLink’s
second generation broadband network. See
https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DA-26-36A1.pdf.
If the FCC
wants to remain true to its “Open Skies,” procompetitive ethos, it has to offer
flexibility in its processing of innovative service applications, but also
guard against ambitious paper satellite proposals designed to preempt
competition and corner a market years before the first of one million
satellites reaches orbit.
