Neutrality Regulatory Uncertainty and Wireless Carrier Capital Expenditures

            FCC Chairman Ajit Pai, a host of “coin operated” researchers and their sponsors relentlessly claim network neutrality rule created substantial and measurable disincentives for wireless carriers to invest in infrastructure.  According to these stakeholders, regulatory uncertainty caused by the rules and judicial appeals to reverse them trump even the technology investment cycle.

            I never could understand how regulatory uncertainty occasioned by the appeal of the Restoring Internet Freedom has not had the same effect. Chairman Pai claims that investment has returned to pre-network neutrality levels thanks solely to his deregulatory efforts.  Never mind that these efforts have triggered the same kind of appellate litigation as when a prior Chairman sought to regulate broadband access.

            Wouldn’t it stand to reason that judicial appeals of deregulatory or regulatory initiatives would have the same disincentives?  Of course, it would, if one could creditably determine that network neutrality rules and litigation over them have a significant—or worst yet—a single and direct effect on network plant investment. 

            In several blog posts, I have stated the view that the cycle of next generation network investment matters regardless whether litigation exists.  Lo and behold here’s an article that confirms the obvious: carriers make substantial investments in next generation plant, such as 4G, then there is a lower investment burden as the new technology gets deployed and turned on. 

            Right now, after making a sizeable investment in 5G, Verizon can throttle down as it turns on its new network.  See Fierce Wireless, Amid 5G rollout, Verizon reduces spending on network (Oct. 23, 2018), available at: https://goo.gl/tgDreK.

            Someday, I hope stakeholders will realize that blatantly wrong assertions do not support their cause, nor does it convert skeptics.

Regulatory Uncertainty and Investment Incentives

            According to sponsored researchers, FCC Chairman Ajit Pai and some incumbent telecommunications carriers, uncertainty about the future nature and scope of government regulation has a BIG TIME toxic affect.  Recently, the list has grown to include threats to national security and global leadership in wireless technology and ecommerce.  Earlier, we heard the relentless, but empirically unproveable claim that the regulatory uncertainty has a direct and negative affect on incentives to make new capital expenditures.

            Let’s consider the regulatory uncertainty created by the FCC’s on-again, off again embrace of network neutrality as well as the constant stream of court appeals and different holdings.  When the Democrats had an FCC majority, the minority railed against the network neutrality as triggering a certain, severe and immediate disincentive for carriers to invest in plant subject to open access requirements.  With a Republican majority, regulatory uncertainty apparent has become a non-issue as capex allegedly has increased thanks to a restoration of Internet freedom.

            Here’s my bottom line: stakeholders accept regulatory uncertainty as relatively minor, ongoing factor in doing business.  Regulatory theories, economic philosophies and political party majorities come and go.  What drives capital expenditure is business necessity and the real, or perceived opportunity to acquire greater market share and profits. 

            Just now, Verizon and other wireless carriers are accelerating their fifth-generation wireless network investments.  See, e.g., https://www.theverge.com/2018/9/11/17847640/verizon-5g-first-home-broadband-internet-service-installations-october-1.  We might even reach a point where wireless subscribers do not bother switching from their data plan to “free” Wi-Fi because the cost and technical performance have reached parity.  If that occurs true inter-modal competition between wired and wireless broadband will have occurred.

            Expediting the rollout of next generation networks has little—if anything—to do with the state of network neutrality regulation.  Carriers made 4G investments in the thick of more certain open Internet regulation.  If a downturn in capex actually occurred, we can largely attribute it to the fact that there are peaks and valleys in investment based on the life cycle of the technology.  After installation of 4G facilities, carriers can pull back on the investment throttle until the competitive need and business plans support ramping up and installing the next generation.  Whether network neutrality regulation exists has little impact, particularly in light of the fact that court appeals were filed after the onset of regulation and later the onset of deregulation.

            Uncertainty whether the regulatory status quo will persist is a recurring challenge to telecommunications ventures.  Lucky for us, they know how to deal with it, despite the breathless angst of certain government officials and sponsored researchers.

The Regulatory Uncertainty Red Herring

            I wish I had a dollar every time I see and hear regulatory uncertainty vilified. In telecommunications regulation and policy, stakeholders involve RU as the reason for any ailment. RU prevents capital investment; RU stifles innovation; RU kills jobs; RU hurts national competitiveness.   RU causes the common cold.

            Here’s a news flash: unless one operates in a market completely free of regulation, there always will be some degree of uncertainty what the future regulatory climate will be.  Speaking of uncertainty, who knows what the cost of capital will be in a year, what law suits will confound a particular company; what technological innovation will challenge the status quo?

            Regulation constitutes one of very many variables for which a commercial venture cannot control.  Companies have to deal with it, but in this day telecom executives speak in complete opposites depending on the audience. To Congress, the FCC and the court of public opinion corporate executives trout out RU as a terrible scourge.  To buy side analysis and in commercial practice the very same executives accept RU as one of many variables in business.

            Has RU prevented wireless companies from making substantial sunk investments in next generation network spectrum and plant?  If RU is such an abomination how can AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson tell one constituency AT&T has had to curb capex investment while at the same time the company pays 45 billion dollars to acquire DirecTV and may offer its own mobile video streaming service? 

            So let me get this straight: RU curbs innovation and investment even as billions of dollars in mergers, acquisitions and new ventures continue to sprout.  

The Impact of Regulation on Broadband Investment

           Several sponsored researchers have floated the notion that network neutrality and Title II common carrier regulation constitute the major reason why U.S. broadband carriers apparently have reduced capital expenditure in new and replacement physical plant.  Does this pass the smell test?  Is there any empirical data proving causality?  Would these allegation pass muster under appropriate peer review?

           Let’s get one principle straight: capex in most industries primarily correlates with competitive necessity and the life cycle of sunk investments.  In the U.S., wireless cellular radio companies bear the burden of streamlined Title II common carrier regulation.  Such regulation has not dissuaded these carriers from sinking billion in spectrum auctions and in plant investment.  The FCC swears that broadband access providers will encounter even less regulatory oversight than wireless carriers.

           Similarly, a year over year analysis of capex might have little to do by way of regulation impact on the incentive to invest and much more on whether and when a carrier needs to invest in new, or replacement infrastructure. Ventures with very high plant investments typically also have capacity that comes online or offline in very large increments.  For example, a satellite company like Intelsat, Dish, Sirius-XM and DirecTV will show a significantly higher plant investment in years when it has to replace an in-orbit and soon to be deactivated satellite.  Variability in capex has nothing to do with whether regulation ebbs and flows in terms of severity, or burden.

          I will concede that telecommunications management may tinker with capex as political leverage for less regulation.  AT&T CEO Randall L. Stephenson has said as much, but do you really think he would ration capex if it would render his company and its services comparatively inferior to what other wireless carriers offer?

          Telecommunications carriers and their sponsored researchers also like to trot out “regulatory uncertainty” as a capex disincentive.  In the same breath, they also like to claim regulation operates as an unconstitutional “taking” of their property and the capex they previously made.  Newsflash: regulation in telecommunications constitutes a cost of business that incumbents and prospective market entrants alike have to take into consideration.

          Bottom line: regulation and uncertainty about the future of regulation has limited impact on capex decision making.  If a carrier can make do with less investment it will do so.  Right now most airlines are replacing kerosene guzzlers with more efficient and cheaper models.  They might also “right size” inventory with smaller aircraft.  Such a reduction in overall passenger capacity and in investment responds to marketplace conditions not whether aviation regulators have become more aggressive.  The same concept applies to telecommunications.

What’s Certain About the Regulatory Uncertainty Debate

            Incumbent carriers, such as AT&T, Comcast and Verizon, have made countless “curtains for the Free World” assertions in the Network Neutrality debate.  They claim that if the FCC reclassifies as common carriage aspects of Internet access, it will create “regulatory uncertainty” and “disincentive investment.” 

            Not one of the countless sponsored researchers funded by incumbents has provided a shred of empirical evidence to support these assertions.  In fact, senior management officials at these carriers readily acknowledge that capital expenditures are based on marketplace conditions.

            These managers act like children in the back seat of a car driven by a parent.  Assuming the parent cannot hear them, kids say very candid things.  So do senior telecommunications managers when discussing capital expenditure with buy-side Wall Street analysts.  AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson has “warned that he could hold off on many of his company's capital investment plans -- including fast new fiber lines -- if uncertainty persists over how the US government will regulate the Internet.” See http://www.cnet.com/news/at-t-ceo-net-neutrality-uncertainty-puts-a-pause-in-investing/.

            Mr. Stephenson and other senior managers would not dare understate future capex in statements to the financial community, or to the Securities and Exchange Commission.

            In my mission to find and tell the truth, here are some inconvenient facts:

Congress Created Regulatory Uncertainty

            Regulatory uncertainty results when Congress fails to legislate despite changed circumstances, or when its laws lack clarity.  Congress last created telecommunications in 1996, before the Internet changed everything.  In that kinder and less partisan time, the legislature achieved consensus, albeit one rife with compromises that translated—over time—into statutory ambiguity.

            The FCC has acted in light of the vacuum generated by congressional inaction.  On two separate occasions, the FCC has failed to convince a reviewing court that its statutory interpretation is reasonable and that the judiciary should defer to its expertise in making sense out of an outdated and ambiguous statutory mandate.

Incumbents Use Regulatory Uncertainty as a Lobbying Tool

            Incumbents sustain regulatory uncertainty based on an assumption that the FCC will raise their cost of doing business and somehow limit their ability to maximize profit.  Yes these carriers will need plenty of staff and expensive lawyers to litigate and perpetuate uncertainty, but where are the constraints on profits?  Broadband access generates triple-digit returns.  Comcast can generate over $1 billion a year in cable modem and set top box rentals, largely because the FCC can’t seem to apply the longstanding Carterfone policy that obligates even private carriers to permit consumers to attach their own devices.

            Regulatory uncertainty is a red herring, because incumbents surely know that if the FCC oversteps, a reviewing court will overturn the rules.  The FCC may fail to convince a reviewing court that circumstances support reclassification of Internet access as common carriage, but the predicate for regulatory uncertainty lies with Congress that created it by not doing its job and by incumbents exploiting it for an uncertain monetary gain.

Competitive Necessity Drives Capex

            AT&T and other incumbent cannot carry out their threat to reduce or stop investing in infrastructure.  The decision to raise, lower or maintain capex results from a strategic assessment of competition.  Competitive necessity forces wireless carrier incumbents to acquire more spectrum, whether to use it, or to warehouse it to prevent market entry.  The lack of competitive necessity makes it possible for wire carriers, like Verizon, to cherry pick and red line the geographical areas where it chooses to offer fiber optic broadband service.

This Debate Increasingly Looks Like a “Tempest in a Teapot”

            The network neutrality debate has triggered the worse sort of exaggeration and hype. Incumbents have not and cannot prove any measurable short and long run harm to their bottom line, but their vigorous and effective claims trigger false positives, i.e., the assumption of harms such as capex disincentives.

            Recent market entrants deem common carriage rules, subject to forbearance of most regulations, as minimally necessary to safeguard competition and innovation.  Maybe, but the real possibility exists that they have identified false negatives, i.e., harms to competition and consumers. 

            Today, tomorrow and for the foreseeable future the remedy to network neutrality concerns likes in having a far more robustly competitive broadband ecosystem, something incumbents strive everyday to thwart.