In the good
news department, we have ample evidence that U.S. Internet Service Providers recently
have accommodated peak demand exceeding 20%+ of normal highs. Excellent. Old timers might recall that in
the legacy telephony world, exceeding the “busy hour” evidences a properly
sized network.
Proper network
sizing to handle peak demand provides empirical proof that, where available in
the U.S., broadband carriers have not scrimped on capital expenditures in “sunk”
plant. I believe ISPs throughout the
world strive to properly size their networks and to install current generation equipment. The ability to do so depends on lines of
credit, the cost of capital and revenue projections—not the existence or
absence of any specific regulatory mandate.
What
troubles me greatly is the false extrapolations made from evidence of network resiliency. Scholars
and regulators—who should know better—extend the achievement of resiliency into
“proof” or confirmation of various regulatory and economic doctrines. An example: thanks to the elimination of
network neutrality, capex has risen so that the U.S. can handle Covid-19 driven
demand increase, but Europe cannot. Another one: U.S. widespread fiber optic
cable deployment has achieved best in class network performance. All sorts of self-congratulatory, “mission
accomplished” blather.
Network
resiliency has no direct link to a single deregulatory initiative, nor does it confirm
universal accessibility and affordability.
From my perch in rural Pennsylvania, neighborhood broadband speeds have declined
somewhat, especially during the new busy hours when lots of neighbors have
several simultaneous, full motion video streams going. However, I am glad to endorse the conclusion that
networks have held up, despite demand surge.
Evidence of
broadband network resiliency juxtaposes with an inconvenient truth: lots of
people cannot access properly sized networks, because this essential, “mission critical”
plant does not extend into their rural locales, or they cannot afford service
even where available. There are plenty
of people in my community who drive near a school or library to access Wi-Fi, because
they have no at home option beyond costly satellite service, or a quickly exhausted
cellular data plan. Many people make do exclusively
with smartphone-delivered broadband, even though the handset screen provides an
inferior interface compared to a personal computer or tablet with keyboard.
It’s probably
a real good idea to take down the “Mission Accomplished” banners.
