Sooner rather than later, landline telephone service will completely transition to wireless and Internet-based calling, commonly referred to as Voice Over the Internet Protocol ("VoIP"). While the FCC, for over a decade, has precluded a “flash cut” service termination, I expect the timeline for copper wire service retirements to shorten. Last year, the FCC removed a federal statutory obligation for landline, copper service where “Plain Old Telephone Service” alternative service exists. See https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/FCC-19-72A1_Rcd.pdf. Recently, AT&T sought removal of its status as “Carrier of Last Resort” legally obligated to provide wireline phone service in California See https://docs.cpuc.ca.gov/PublishedDocs/Efile/G000/M502/K977/502977267.PDF; and https://www.rcrcnet.org/cpuc-announces-public-hearings-att%E2%80%99s-request-discontinue-landline-service.
I terminated landline service with reservations that had kept my household wired for years. I miss the “toll quality” sound, ability to send faxes with ease, and having a standalone answering machine that readily shows inbound voicemails. I can see how so-called Digital Immigrants might not want to ascend the learning curve on setting up wireless voicemail and programming smartphones to provide notification of calls to a virtual mailbox for messages.
The big problem, particularly for specific households like the elderly, and homes with fax machines, burglar alarms, health monitoring, is the added risks and burdens that consumers must bear. Landlines use power provided by the telephone company, while wireless and VoIP require home-based power. Cellphones need daily recharging, or the use of portable battery packs. VoIP calling requires modems and special terminals that may run out of backup battery power after a few hours.
The recent floods in California, Superstorm Sandy, hurricanes, tornados, earth quakes, volcanic eruptions etc. trigger days long power outages. Wireline phone service rarely fails
A few statistics worth noting about 30% of all U.S. households still have landline service, but most also have a wireless option. 75% of households with Seniors and people with certain medical conditions still rely on landline service. Fewer than 5% of Digital Natives, i.e., people less than 25 years of age, have landline service.
I anticipate a faster pace of landline service closure requests to state Public Utility Commissions like that from AT&T in California. Because landline service involves local and intrastate service, state PUCs (not the FCC) have jurisdiction.
I expect consumer friendly state regulators, to hold public hearings and to impose tough requirements before agreeing to service terminations. I anticipate a reduction to single digit national market penetration within the next few years. The top 100 urban markets should see service closure in the next 2-3 years. The Today Show for Feb. 8, 2024 has a piece that includes my forecast; see https://www.today.com/video/phone-companies-phase-out-landlines-in-homes-203846213929?search=landline%20telephone%20service%20terminations.
