Award Winning Blog

Friday, February 16, 2024

A Brief Primer on Anti-satellite Warfare Tactics

A Brief Primer on Anti-satellite Warfare Tactics

Satellites make it possible for governments to provide essential services, such as national defense, navigation, and weather forecasting.  Private ventures use satellites to offer highly desired services that include video program distribution, telecommunications, and Internet access. The Russian launch of a satellite, with nuclear power and the likely ability to disable satellites, underscores how satellites are quite vulnerable to both natural and manmade ruin. See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/us/politics/intelligence-russia-nuclear.html.

The Russian launch increases the risk that satellites can be disabled, immediately evaporating billions of dollars in value, while also adding to space debris that can collide with satellites, rendering them worthless.  Having a nuclear power source, extends the available time in space and probably the maneuverability of the satellite.  This capability arguably violates a treaty-level Russian commitment to keep space nuclear-free. Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, Article IV (1967); https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html.

However, the U.N. document lacks any enforcement option and Russia surely will characterize its technology as a source of operational power and propulsion, not weaponry.  

Set out below, I explain how the sun and manmade anti-satellite techniques can annihilate satellites.  Despite global consensus to promote peaceful uses of outer space for the benefit of everyone, the stakes have increased that space will become “weaponized” of as a new theater of warfare See Rob Frieden, Dangers From Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space (Nov. 2023); https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4628699; https://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/5448-outer-space; https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-space-weapons/.

Natural Risks

Satellites are launched into various locations above earth where solar radiation can rise to a level that disrupts circuitry and orbital stability.  The earth’s gravitational force, pulls satellites downward.  Satellites need on-board propulsion to offset gravity, but such “station keeping” capability is limited by available fuel and power.  Because satellites cannot be repaired or refueled in orbit, components, like batteries, eventually fail.  Satellites in outer space, from about 60 to 22,300 miles above earth, typically have a useable life of 10 years.  Low earth orbiting satellites, closer in proximity to earth and smaller in size, have much shorter life expectancies.

Human Risks

While satellite technology has vastly improved, roughly one in three launches fail to insert space objects into proper orbit.  Leaky rocket boosters, design defects, weather conditions at launch, and other factors can render a massive investment of time, money, and effort worthless.  Even if a satellite reaches the proper location, components may fail prematurely resulting in diminished performance and early end of life.

The risk of costly calamities in space has risen at an alarming rate, because national governments understand the importance of space orbiting resources, for surveillance, communications, earth observation, and navigation.  China, India, Russia, and the United States have developed so-called anti-satellite technologies designed to disrupt or eradicate operational satellites. See https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Gleason-Hays_SpaceWeapons_20201006_0.pdf. The techniques include earth-based and orbiting resources that can directly impact a nearby target or do so from a distance. Currently available options include missiles and other projectiles, as well as using radio, lasers, and software to disrupt the satellite’s ability to receive instructions and perform as designed.

Nations can render satellites worthless in ways that limit the damage solely to the satellite, by nudging it out of a stable orbit father outward into deep space, or downward toward earth at a trajectory resulting in complete vaporization.  Failing to execute either of these two strategies can result in the creation of thousands of intact space debris that can later collide with other satellites.

Space Treaty Obsolescence and Ineffectiveness

Just as the private and public opportunities increase using space to benefit everyone, a chronic lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails, has the potential to frustrate and possibly thwart progress and stability. The five Space Treaties, administered by the United Nations, see https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/index.html; has not foreclosed the growing risk of catastrophic space vehicle collisions, the proliferation of space debris that increase the odds for additional collisions, and the incentive and ability of some to weaponize space.

Unless the nations of the world quickly revise the treaties to clarify what is meant by peaceful uses of outer space, some space faring governments will exploit ambiguity with potentially disastrous consequences.


Tuesday, February 13, 2024

Lies, Damn Lies, and Selective Statistics About Our Great Wireless Marketplace Thanks to the TMobile Acquisition of Sprint

             In the February 13th edition of the Wall Street Journal, Professor Thomas W. Hazlett offers a breathless endorsement of market concentration with the TMobile acquisition of Sprint his go to example.  See https://www.wsj.com/articles/t-mobile-proves-that-mergers-can-benefit-consumers-8fab2890.  Apparently, mergers and acquisitions benefit consumers, because they enhance competition and generate all sorts of positive outcomes that could not possibly have occurred, but for the reduction in the number of industry players.

            Professor Hazlett has cherry picked statistics to create the false impression that mergers are the primary trigger for all events enhancing consumer welfare.  Conveniently, he ignores the benefits accruing from technological innovation, maturing markets, and the likelihood that just about all of his evidence would have occurred even if TMobile had not acquired Sprint.

             Do not be fooled into suspending disbelief and ignoring common sense.  Companies merge, because senior management believes industrial consolidation will enhance shareholder value, generate bonuses, and make it less essential to work sleepless afternoons, reduce operating margins, and enhance the value proposition of the goods and service offered.

            Here’s a reality check: consider whether and how TMobile continues to serve as the wireless marketplace maverick keen on innovating and distinguishing itself from the clueless market leaders AT&T and Verizon.  The judge approving the $26.5 billion acquisition of Sprint shared Professor Hazlett’s enthusiasm that a bolstered TMobile would have even greater capabilities and incentives to acquire market share and trounce the bigger incumbents:

 

[I]t is highly unlikely that New TMobile executives, upon the company being reinforced  nearer in size and resources to AT&T and Verizon, would do a commercial about-face and instead pursue anticompetitive strategies. State of New York et al v. Deutsche Telekom AG et al, No. 1:2019cv05434 - Document 409 at 160-61 (S.D.N.Y. 2020). available at: https://cases.justia.com/federal/district-courts/new-york/nysdce/1:2019cv05434/517350/409/0.pdf?ts=1581513636 … [T]estimony and documentary evidence revealed . . . a company reinforced with a massive infusion of spectrum, capacity, capital, and other resources, and chomping to take on its new market peers and rivals in head-on competition. Id. at 161

             Do you consider TMobile as operating with the competitive zeal anticipated by an approving court and attributed by Professor Hazlett?  Put another way, post-merger, what has TMobile offered to distinguish itself as the better of three options?

             TMobile has relaxed its maverick, competitive muscles making it possible for all three gigantic carriers to raise rates, well above the general inflation level.  TMobile matches, and in some instances, exceeds comparable options from AT&T and Verizon. https://www.lightreading.com/5g/t-mobile-s-premium-pricing-passes-at-t-verizonhttps://ktla.com/news/money-smart/t-mobile-planning-to-move-customers-on-older-phone-plans-to-newer-ones/https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/tech/verizon-plan-price-increase/index.html. The three carriers have nearly identical rates and differentiate primarily on what “free” video streaming service they bundle and how clever they can confuse consumers into assuming “on us” means a free handset.

             There’s an inconvenient fact that U.S. wireless subscribers pay some of the highest rates globally. See, e.g., https://communitytechnetwork.org/blog/why-is-the-internet-more-expensive-in-the-usa-than-in-other-countries/https://kushnickbruce.medium.com/at-ts-wireless-profits-are-outrageous-at-t-s-5g-wireless-prepaid-prices-are-obscene-compared-dc15c57926fhttps://themarkup.org/2020/09/03/cost-speed-of-mobile-data-by-countryhttps://www.quora.com/Why-are-phone-plans-in-the-US-so-expensive-compared-to-other-countries-not-hate/.

             Statistics do show a long-term reduction in cost based on increasing minutes of use and data consumption, i.e., the per voice minute or per megabyte of data price has dropped precipitously.  As markets evolve and carriers accrue greater economies of scale, prices should decline.  However, the rate of decline in the U.S. pales in comparison to that occurring just about everywhere else.  

             Recently, all three U.S. wireless carriers have raised, not further reduced rates.  See, e.g., https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/06/tech/verizon-plan-price-increase/index.html. TMobile triggered major pushback when it sought to eliminate service tiers and force an “upgrade” to something significantly more expensive. https://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/t-mobile-will-migrate-customers-higher-cost-plans.

             I can find nothing about the T-Mobile acquisition of Sprint proving how mergers can benefit consumers.