A Brief Primer on Anti-satellite
Warfare Tactics
Satellites make it possible for
governments to provide essential services, such as national defense,
navigation, and weather forecasting. Private ventures use satellites to offer highly
desired services that include video program distribution, telecommunications, and
Internet access. The Russian launch of a satellite, with nuclear power and the
likely ability to disable satellites, underscores how satellites are quite
vulnerable to both natural and manmade ruin. See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/us/politics/intelligence-russia-nuclear.html.
The Russian launch increases the
risk that satellites can be disabled, immediately evaporating billions of
dollars in value, while also adding to space debris that can collide with
satellites, rendering them worthless. Having a nuclear power source, extends the available
time in space and probably the maneuverability of the satellite. This capability arguably violates a
treaty-level Russian commitment to keep space nuclear-free. Treaty on
Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of
Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, Article IV (1967); https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html.
However, the U.N. document lacks
any enforcement option and Russia surely will characterize its technology as a
source of operational power and propulsion, not weaponry.
Set out below, I explain how the
sun and manmade anti-satellite techniques can annihilate satellites. Despite global consensus to promote peaceful
uses of outer space for the benefit of everyone, the stakes have increased that
space will become “weaponized” of as a new theater of warfare See Rob Frieden, Dangers
From Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space (Nov. 2023); https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4628699;
https://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/5448-outer-space;
https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-space-weapons/.
Natural Risks
Satellites are launched into various
locations above earth where solar radiation can rise to a level that disrupts
circuitry and orbital stability. The
earth’s gravitational force, pulls satellites downward. Satellites need on-board propulsion to offset
gravity, but such “station keeping” capability is limited by available fuel and
power. Because satellites cannot be
repaired or refueled in orbit, components, like batteries, eventually fail. Satellites in outer space, from about 60 to
22,300 miles above earth, typically have a useable life of 10 years. Low earth orbiting satellites, closer in proximity
to earth and smaller in size, have much shorter life expectancies.
Human Risks
While satellite technology
has vastly improved, roughly one in three launches fail to insert space objects
into proper orbit. Leaky rocket
boosters, design defects, weather conditions at launch, and other factors can
render a massive investment of time, money, and effort worthless. Even if a satellite reaches the proper
location, components may fail prematurely resulting in diminished performance
and early end of life.
The risk of costly calamities in
space has risen at an alarming rate, because national governments understand
the importance of space orbiting resources, for surveillance, communications,
earth observation, and navigation. China,
India, Russia, and the United States have developed so-called anti-satellite technologies
designed to disrupt or eradicate operational satellites. See https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Gleason-Hays_SpaceWeapons_20201006_0.pdf.
The techniques include earth-based and orbiting resources that can directly
impact a nearby target or do so from a distance. Currently available options include
missiles and other projectiles, as well as using radio, lasers, and software to
disrupt the satellite’s ability to receive instructions and perform as
designed.
Nations can render satellites worthless
in ways that limit the damage solely to the satellite, by nudging it out of a
stable orbit father outward into deep space, or downward toward earth at a trajectory
resulting in complete vaporization. Failing
to execute either of these two strategies can result in the creation of thousands
of intact space debris that can later collide with other satellites.
Space Treaty Obsolescence and
Ineffectiveness
Just as the private and public opportunities
increase using space to benefit everyone, a chronic lag in government
oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails, has the
potential to frustrate and possibly thwart progress and stability. The five Space
Treaties, administered by the United Nations, see https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/index.html;
has not foreclosed the growing risk of catastrophic space vehicle collisions, the
proliferation of space debris that increase the odds for additional collisions,
and the incentive and ability of some to weaponize space.
Unless the nations of the world quickly
revise the treaties to clarify what is meant by peaceful uses of outer space, some
space faring governments will exploit ambiguity with potentially disastrous consequences.
