Two Works in Progress on Threats to Space Commerce

     My current research agenda focuses on the growing threats to space commerce from space debris, the growing risk that space will become weaponized as a new theater of warfare, anti-satellite testing, spacecraft collisions, atmospheric pollution, unenforceable treaties, and regulatory uncertainty. The papers are available at: https://hq.ssrn.com/submissions/MyPapers.cfm?partid=102928

    Here are the two abstracts:

    Dangers From the Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space

         Space, "the final frontier," has become an attractive, but increasingly risky market for both public and private investments.  Gold rush enthusiasm anticipates solutions to the Digital Divide via small low earth orbiting satellites, extraction of valuable minerals from asteroids, a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, and expanding earth observation opportunities.  Such entrepreneurial boldness juxtaposes with a severe lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails. The ambitious plans of Elon Musk and other space entrepreneurs could fail, despite recent market success, as SpaceX’s plans for 148 rocket launches in 2024.

    Without substantial refinement of global space treaties and effective national regulation, expanding and imprudent use of space resources could trigger "the tragedy of the commons," rendering the most valuable regions of space unusable. Satellites could collide, or strike orbiting debris at extremely high speeds.  Accidental collisions are more likely in a crowded orbital region, such as 200-1200 miles above earth where low earth orbiting satellites operate

    A much more costly calamity can occur when a valuable, fully operational satellite collides with space debris, such as a deactivated satellite, or when it becomes a target in a test of anti-satellite (“ASAT”) technology.  The likelihood of a space object collisions increases substantially when space faring nations and private ventures do not nudge no longer useful objects upward, farther into deep space, or on a downward trajectory toward earth that would guarantee complete vaporization.  The testing and future use of ASAT technology risks “weaponizing” space, despite treaty-level commitments to use it solely for peaceful purposes, benefitting everyone.

    This article explains how national governments have generated or tolerated the proliferation of space debris to potentially dangerous levels of space debris without penalty. It explains how intergovernmental agreements, such as the five space treaties administered by the United Nations, and the space/spectrum management agreements of the International Telecommunication Union, have not required space debris mitigation, nor sanctioned operators responsible for generating more space debris.

    The failure to address and resolve proliferating space debris from ASATs and abandoned space objects will increase the potential for calamities that render space access too risky. The article identifies how intergovernmental agreements can mandate space debris mitigation, impose sanctions for noncompliance, and create financial incentives for recycling and removing existing debris.

 Assessing the Impact of the Great Power Competition on Space Commerce

        Just as space commerce appears to have reached a critical mass, competing national government interests can thwart progress with strategies and tactics that increase market risk, volatility, and uncertainty. Despite universal support for a treaty-level commitment to pursue only peaceful activities, for the benefit of everyone, unilateral actions by the governments of China, Russia, the United States have the potential to disrupt markets and even weaponize space.  The five international treaties on space-related activities cannot foreclose weaponization of space as a likely new theater of warfare.

      So-called Great Power Competition has generated high stakes rivalry to retain or secure supremacy in military, political, economic, and societal spheres. The battle for a competitive advantage has the potential to reduce or even thwart continuing success in space markets, because conflict and rivalry on earth includes an increasingly volatile above ground component.

      This paper assesses two conflicting trends.  On one hand, space commerce in 2023 generated an estimated $630 billion in economic activity, rising to a potential $1.8 trillion by 2035. Low Earth Orbiting satellite constellations have the potential to bridge the Digital Divide by providing a reliable infrastructure for widely available and affordable broadband access, even in remote, rural, and impoverished locales throughout the world. Other developing market opportunities include development of a vibrant space launch and tourism industry, space exploration, colonization of the Moon and Mars and an expanded array of services via commercial satellites.

           On the other hand, longstanding and emerging challenges in outer space may shift from chronic and unresolved, to acute and potentially catastrophic. National governments and private ventures can avoid triggering worst case scenarios only if they accept compulsory limits on space weapons testing and use, coupled with effective measures to reduce the risk of collisions with discarded or active spacecraft.  

          The paper identifies the most pressing and emerging quandaries, many of which result from a nation’s failure to comply with limitations on space activity broadly framed by space treaties entered into force over 40 years ago. Because governments of the world have not reached consensus on whether and how to modernize the treaties, the currently in force agreements do not address market entry by private ventures, lack an enforcement mechanism to compel compliance, and rely primarily on the good will of all countries to support noble aspirations that increasingly deviate from individual national interests.  

          Recent deployment of unconventional space objects by China and Russia point to near term use of technologies for enhanced surveillance, and disruption, or even destruction of quite valuable in-space assets.  A national campaign to promote the acquisition of comparatively more power and leadership in space, by both the public and private sectors, can have consequences underappreciated in their severity.  

          The paper also explains how emerging technologies and business plans contribute to both revenue enhancement and greater risk of calamity. It offers specific recommendations on what unconditional and immediate commitments national governments and private ventures must make to avoid potential ruination of space.

            

A Brief Primer on Anti-satellite Warfare Tactics

A Brief Primer on Anti-satellite Warfare Tactics

Satellites make it possible for governments to provide essential services, such as national defense, navigation, and weather forecasting.  Private ventures use satellites to offer highly desired services that include video program distribution, telecommunications, and Internet access. The Russian launch of a satellite, with nuclear power and the likely ability to disable satellites, underscores how satellites are quite vulnerable to both natural and manmade ruin. See https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/us/politics/intelligence-russia-nuclear.html.

The Russian launch increases the risk that satellites can be disabled, immediately evaporating billions of dollars in value, while also adding to space debris that can collide with satellites, rendering them worthless.  Having a nuclear power source, extends the available time in space and probably the maneuverability of the satellite.  This capability arguably violates a treaty-level Russian commitment to keep space nuclear-free. Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, Article IV (1967); https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/en/ourwork/spacelaw/treaties/outerspacetreaty.html.

However, the U.N. document lacks any enforcement option and Russia surely will characterize its technology as a source of operational power and propulsion, not weaponry.  

Set out below, I explain how the sun and manmade anti-satellite techniques can annihilate satellites.  Despite global consensus to promote peaceful uses of outer space for the benefit of everyone, the stakes have increased that space will become “weaponized” of as a new theater of warfare See Rob Frieden, Dangers From Regulatory Vacuums in Outer, Inner, and Near Space (Nov. 2023); https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4628699; https://www.reachingcriticalwill.org/resources/fact-sheets/critical-issues/5448-outer-space; https://armscontrolcenter.org/fact-sheet-space-weapons/.

Natural Risks

Satellites are launched into various locations above earth where solar radiation can rise to a level that disrupts circuitry and orbital stability.  The earth’s gravitational force, pulls satellites downward.  Satellites need on-board propulsion to offset gravity, but such “station keeping” capability is limited by available fuel and power.  Because satellites cannot be repaired or refueled in orbit, components, like batteries, eventually fail.  Satellites in outer space, from about 60 to 22,300 miles above earth, typically have a useable life of 10 years.  Low earth orbiting satellites, closer in proximity to earth and smaller in size, have much shorter life expectancies.

Human Risks

While satellite technology has vastly improved, roughly one in three launches fail to insert space objects into proper orbit.  Leaky rocket boosters, design defects, weather conditions at launch, and other factors can render a massive investment of time, money, and effort worthless.  Even if a satellite reaches the proper location, components may fail prematurely resulting in diminished performance and early end of life.

The risk of costly calamities in space has risen at an alarming rate, because national governments understand the importance of space orbiting resources, for surveillance, communications, earth observation, and navigation.  China, India, Russia, and the United States have developed so-called anti-satellite technologies designed to disrupt or eradicate operational satellites. See https://aerospace.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/Gleason-Hays_SpaceWeapons_20201006_0.pdf. The techniques include earth-based and orbiting resources that can directly impact a nearby target or do so from a distance. Currently available options include missiles and other projectiles, as well as using radio, lasers, and software to disrupt the satellite’s ability to receive instructions and perform as designed.

Nations can render satellites worthless in ways that limit the damage solely to the satellite, by nudging it out of a stable orbit father outward into deep space, or downward toward earth at a trajectory resulting in complete vaporization.  Failing to execute either of these two strategies can result in the creation of thousands of intact space debris that can later collide with other satellites.

Space Treaty Obsolescence and Ineffectiveness

Just as the private and public opportunities increase using space to benefit everyone, a chronic lag in government oversight, consumer safeguards, and essential operational guardrails, has the potential to frustrate and possibly thwart progress and stability. The five Space Treaties, administered by the United Nations, see https://www.unoosa.org/oosa/index.html; has not foreclosed the growing risk of catastrophic space vehicle collisions, the proliferation of space debris that increase the odds for additional collisions, and the incentive and ability of some to weaponize space.

Unless the nations of the world quickly revise the treaties to clarify what is meant by peaceful uses of outer space, some space faring governments will exploit ambiguity with potentially disastrous consequences.